Unknown to the general public is that, 1.5 years after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, there is a supply crisis.

Large, Western firms–and presumably others, elsewhere–have trouble getting supplies from China. The ostensible Factory to the World cannot provide, thus becoming the bottle neck to consumption.

In brief, shipping containers are at Los Angeles’ port, waiting months to be unloaded. And China is short of containers, with prices for the latter–as well as for innumerable raw materials and component parts–having consequently risen. While, in the past, Chinese suppliers were vying for Western manufacturers, now they can demand high prices. (Premonitive serendipity!)

Furthermore, for complex manufacturing such as IC fabrication (eg CPUs), getting production up to the speeds of the status quo ante is not a process that can be ramped up in a hurry.

Intuitively, one’d expect that resumption would be a continuation of where Covid had forced us to cease. But, it seems that unexpectedly erratic demand has generated a different outcome. Corporations seem to be ordering in quantities unsupported by demand forecasts. Irrational exuberance? Likely, but in attempting to protect themselves against the rise in prices, and container back-logs, they are little different from toilet-paper hoarders.